Moldova is a diverse and multi-ethnic country, with a sizeable Russian-speaking minority, making up approximately one-quarter of the population. Overall social cohesion in the country is considered weak, and the society remains divided, primarily along geopolitical and ethno-linguistic fault lines. The ongoing settlement process with the Transnistrian region continues to impact the internal stability of Moldova. The country faces challenging demographic issues, such as low fertility rates, low life expectancy, an ageing population and a brain drain.

In November 2016 SeeD began working with the UN system and a local partner, the Association for Participatory Democracy (ADEPT. Moldova is an example where different members of the UN Country Team have decided to support a SCORE project, bringing together the Office of the UN Resident Coordinator, UNDP, UNICEF, UN Women and UNFPA. Using the SCORE methodology, we explored five major thematic areas contributing to overall social cohesion in the country: fostering constructive civic engagement, reversal of brain drain and emigration tendency, sharing human rights ethos, prevention of estrangement tendencies in Gagauzia and support for gender equity and inclusion. Our work focussed heavily on adolescent development and we helped partners to use evidence to shape policies which could respond to the needs of Moldova’s young people.

In 2022, SeeD partnered with UNDP Moldova to implement a new round of the SCORE Index on the right bank of the Nistru river. This phase built on previous work to provide updated insights into social cohesion, intergroup relations, and civic engagement, at a time of growing regional uncertainty. The 2022 SCORE focused on how developments such as the war in Ukraine, economic pressures, and governance challenges were affecting trust, tolerance, and participation across Moldovan society. The findings have supported evidence-based programming and policy dialogue, particularly in areas related to polarization, youth engagement, and resilience to external shocks.

Social Tensions Monitoring Mechanism

In 2023, SeeD began developing the Social Tensions Monitoring Mechanism (STMM) in Moldova to support early warning, analysis, and response to emerging social tensions. The first phase focused on designing a system of tools capable of identifying anti-systemic and contentious potential, while also defining entry points through which partners could address grievances before they escalate. The framework brought together perspectives from social cohesion analysis, conflict research, peacebuilding, social psychology, polarization, intergroup relations, civic participation, communication, activism, and early warning and response systems.

Building on this foundation, SeeD implemented a second phase of STMM work focused on Moldova’s evolving socio-political context. This phase examined how current pressures, including the war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, economic strain, and tensions linked to the Transnistrian settlement, were affecting public trust, tolerance, social cohesion, and civic contentiousness. Complementary SCORE rounds conducted on both banks of the Nistru river provided the evidence base for the STMM, helping partners track emerging risks and better coordinate timely responses.

In 2025, SeeD completed a further STMM-related research services project, strengthening the mechanism’s analytical and stakeholder engagement components. The work included the preparation of an inception report, stakeholder dialogues in rural and district areas, data analysis, support to a media monitoring tool, and the dissemination of findings to relevant stakeholders. Through this phase, SeeD contributed to a more evidence-based approach for identifying drivers of social tensions, monitoring contentious potential, and supporting partners in designing responses that are grounded in data and local realities.